The Treatment of Uncertainty in Airport Strategic Planning: the Case of Schiphol Airport’s Long-term Vision

Airport Strategic Planning (ASP) focuses on the development of plans for the mediumand long-term development of an airport. In general, airports do not have a good track record for making good long-term decisions, primarily because they fail to take uncertainties about the future into account in a proper way. With the recent dramatic changes occurring in the context in which an airport operates (e.g., low cost carriers, new types of aircraft, and the liberalization and privatization of airlines and airports), the uncertainties airports face are bound to increase. Hence, there is an even greater need for improvements in the way ASP takes uncertainty about future developments into account. This paper reviews the treatment of uncertainty in the current debate about the future of Amsterdam Airport Schiphol. We examine documents related to the debate to identify key uncertainties and how they are being treated. We critically review these uncertainties and suggest uncertainties that are missing but might be of relevance. Finally, we review the current treatment of the different uncertainties and suggest alternative treatments in light of recent theoretical developments in the Airport Strategic Planning literature. More specifically, we suggest how ideas from Adaptive Policymaking, Dynamic Strategic Planning, and Flexible Strategic Planning, such as real options, hedging, and monitoring, could help in improving the performance of plans produced by the policy debate.